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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 3, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 2

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT05114319438
BUF01309214236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 13:38OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Ryan Shannon · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P3 5:59OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Ryan Shannon · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P3 7:17BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P3 7:44BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Jochen Hecht, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P3 19:00OTTDaniel AlfredssonGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:37OTTDaniel AlfredssonENAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 11:56BUFMatt Ellis: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 17:34BUFAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 18:07OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 0:00BUFJason Pominville: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 2:15OTTJarkko Ruutu: Elbowing2 min
  6. P2 4:08BUFTim Connolly: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 16:40OTTChris Phillips: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P2 16:40OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 16:40BUFTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 8:14OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTBUF
38Shots on goal36
3.0Expected goals2.5
53Shot attempts56
27Faceoffs won37
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
17Hits27
7Blocked shots9
15Giveaways15
4Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 2.5 xGOTT 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #316 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.71 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).