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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 3, 2010·United Center, Chicago

St. Louis Blues 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2

Away

St. Louis Blues

3

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.

CHI winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL033907319
CHI19011114234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:40CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Troy Brouwer · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:34STLDavid BackesAssists: Paul Kariya · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:29STLDavid BackesPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:38STLJay McClementGWGAssists: Roman Polak · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
  5. P3 4:16CHIMarian HossaSHAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 1:43STLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 6:50CHICristobal Huet: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P2 17:38CHIBen Eager: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P3 1:31STLKeith Tkachuk: Interference2 min
  5. P3 3:17CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Backes
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCHI
19Shots on goal34
2.0Expected goals3.7
32Shot attempts52
26Faceoffs won29
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
22Hits19
9Blocked shots4
3Giveaways8
3Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.7 xGSTL 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHISTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #742 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 79% of the time.

CHI winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).