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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 3, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Philadelphia Flyers 0, Edmonton Oilers 1

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

0

Final

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Edmonton Oilers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.

EDM winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI01401207033
EDM01101016127

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 19:43EDMRyan PotulnyPPGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:28EDMJason Strudwick: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:52EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:52PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:52PHIMike Richards: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 17:46EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 9:47PHIDarroll Powe: Interference2 min
  7. P2 12:39EDMDustin Penner: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 14:36EDMAlex Plante: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 18:10PHIDarroll Powe: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIEDM
33Shots on goal27
3.6Expected goals1.8
70Shot attempts53
33Faceoffs won20
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
19Hits19
15Blocked shots16
17Giveaways19
5Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 1.8 xGPHI 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 12/100 · #1080 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.

EDM winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).