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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 4, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Montréal Canadiens 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.

BOS winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL052907041325
BOS115117010050247

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:48BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: Derek Morris, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:25BOSBlake WheelerAssists: David Krejci, Michael Ryder · Snap, 0.31 xG0–2
  3. P2 17:06MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:45MTLRoman HamrlikAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
  2. 2. BOS David Krejci stopped
  3. 3. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
  4. 4. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
  5. 5. MTL Brian Gionta scored
  6. 6. BOS Marc Savard stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 0:46MTLBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:13MTLJaroslav Spacek: Interference2 min
  3. P1 14:27MTLAndrei Markov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  4. P2 16:08BOSMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 5:06MTLTravis Moen: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 6:59BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 16:18MTLMaxim Lapierre: Boarding2 min
  8. OT 1:19MTLRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLBOS
25Shots on goal47
3.2Expected goals4.7
49Shot attempts71
24Faceoffs won35
2Power plays6
12Penalty minutes4
29Hits17
11Blocked shots7
1Giveaways5
0Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 4.7 xGMTL 3.2 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #349 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.

BOS winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).