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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 4, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Washington Capitals 6, New York Rangers 5

Away

Washington Capitals

6

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.

NYR winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH1631828632
NYR21831406538

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:58NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Vinny Prospal · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:40WSHBoyd GordonAssists: David Steckel, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:50NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Marian Gaborik, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:41WSHMike KnubleAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P2 7:16WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P2 12:19NYROlli JokinenPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
  7. P2 12:59NYRVinny ProspalPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Marian Gaborik · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–4
  8. P2 18:48NYRBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Matt Gilroy, Henrik Lundqvist · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–5
  9. P2 19:51WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–5
  10. P3 0:59WSHTom PotiPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–5
  11. P3 5:34WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.25 xG6–5
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 8:20WSHTomas Fleischmann: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 19:38NYRErik Christensen: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:11NYROlli Jokinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
  4. P2 9:24NYROlli Jokinen: Holding2 min
  5. P2 11:55WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 12:49WSHJason Chimera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  7. P2 12:52WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 13:48NYRChris Drury: Interference2 min
  9. P2 17:15WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 0:23NYRMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 3:05WSHShaone Morrisonn: Interference2 min
  12. P3 4:28NYROlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 9:17NYRDan Girardi: Holding2 min
  14. P3 15:43NYRDan Girardi: Interference2 min
  15. P3 17:30NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fleischmann won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHNYR
32Shots on goal38
5.7Expected goals5.0
69Shot attempts68
37Faceoffs won34
9Power plays6
12Penalty minutes18
28Hits33
15Blocked shots18
6Giveaways5
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 5.0 xGWSH 5.7 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #10 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.66 · 11 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 10% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.

NYR winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).