Thu, Feb 4, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New York Islanders 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 116 | 06 | 236 |
| TBL | 110 | 215 | 26 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:15TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:26NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Bruno Gervais · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:12NYIJon SimAssists: Doug Weight, Richard Park · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 9:37TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 10:13TBLVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 11:49TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Steve Downie, Mike Lundin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:22TBLAlex TanguayENAssists: Stephane Veilleux, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:23TBLKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:29NYIDustin Kohn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:21TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:50NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P2 18:17NYIAndy Sutton: Holding2 min
- P3 3:20TBLJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:31TBLMike Lundin: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Park
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).