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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 4, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 5

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.

NSH winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL1818110326
NSH01441517536

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:39COLCody McLeodAssists: Chris Stewart, Ryan Wilson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:46NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Jason Arnott, J-P Dumont · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:49NSHJoel WardAssists: Jerred Smithson, David Legwand · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:59COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Kyle Cumiskey, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
  5. P2 14:22NSHJason ArnottAssists: Steve Sullivan, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:19NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Jason Arnott, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 10:31NSHSteve SullivanPPAssists: Shea Weber, Jason Arnott · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
  8. P3 18:42COLJustin MercierAssists: Chris Durno · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
  1. P2 4:39COLKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
  2. P2 5:27COLPaul Stastny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  3. P2 13:37NSHDavid Legwand: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 18:09NSHJ-P Dumont: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 18:09COLCraig Anderson: Roughing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 18:39COLJohn-Michael Liles: Holding2 min
  7. P3 1:52COLBrandon Yip: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P3 7:10NSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 8:46COLMatt Duchene: Broken stick2 min · PPG
  10. P3 13:06NSHSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLNSH
26Shots on goal36
2.3Expected goals2.6
48Shot attempts53
28Faceoffs won35
3Power plays5
12Penalty minutes8
14Hits17
10Blocked shots13
5Giveaways10
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.6 xGCOL 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #393 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.39 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.

NSH winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).