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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 4, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Edmonton Oilers 2, Minnesota Wild 4

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.

MIN winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM01017115232
MIN01517314436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:19MINMartin HavlatAssists: Kim Johnsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:41EDMMike ComriePPAssists: Sam Gagner, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:41MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Mikko Koivu, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P3 8:41EDMMarc-Antoine PouliotAssists: Zack Stortini, Jean-Francois Jacques · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 12:12MINGuillaume LatendresseGWGAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:24MINMartin HavlatAssists: Guillaume Latendresse · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 4:07EDMShawn Horcoff: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 12:03EDMDenis Grebeshkov: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 18:33MINJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 4:28MINOwen Nolan: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 5:48MINMarek Zidlicky: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 9:50EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 12:23MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Gagner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMMIN
32Shots on goal36
2.3Expected goals4.0
50Shot attempts64
17Faceoffs won45
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
14Hits20
17Blocked shots6
3Giveaways14
2Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 4.0 xGEDM 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #533 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.69 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.

MIN winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).