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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 4, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Anaheim Ducks 4, Los Angeles Kings 6

Away

Anaheim Ducks

4

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

LAK winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA1130435422
LAK11124316631

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:40ANAJason BlakeAssists: Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:54LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 1:04LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Anze Kopitar, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:00LAKMichal HandzusPPAssists: Alex Frolov, Jack Johnson · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P3 1:44LAKJack JohnsonAssists: Alex Frolov, Michal Handzus · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
  6. P3 3:11ANATroy BodieAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Whitney · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 5:12ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
  8. P3 9:35ANARyan CarterAssists: Todd Marchant, Jason Blake · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
  9. P3 14:28LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:33LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Michal Handzus, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 1:50LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:50ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 2:22LAKOscar Moller: Interference2 min
  4. P2 15:15ANASteve Eminger: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P3 18:55ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANALAK
22Shots on goal31
2.0Expected goals3.3
41Shot attempts56
33Faceoffs won29
1Power plays2
9Penalty minutes7
37Hits39
11Blocked shots8
10Giveaways10
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 3.3 xGANA 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #44 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.89 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

LAK winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).