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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 5, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New Jersey Devils 4

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR073805320
NJD11008310428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:20NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Jamie Langenbrunner · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:39TORTomas KaberlePPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:23TORLee StempniakPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:09TORRickard WallinAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P3 16:56NJDDean McAmmondAssists: Vladimir Zharkov, Mike Mottau · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:16NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Dean McAmmond, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P3 19:41NJDJay PandolfoGWGAssists: Mike Mottau, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 17:45TORFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 2:50NJDRob Niedermayer: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:52TORJay Rosehill: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 4:57NJDVladimir Zharkov: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 8:38NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P3 8:48NJDColin White: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 17:38TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Wallin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORNJD
20Shots on goal28
1.6Expected goals1.8
28Shot attempts42
22Faceoffs won24
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
27Hits16
7Blocked shots3
4Giveaways18
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.8 xGTOR 1.6 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #138 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.14 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 2% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).