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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 5, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Washington Capitals 5

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.

WSH winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL18022115245
WSH11119312532

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:46ATLToby EnstromAssists: Rich Peverley, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:41WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:31WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Knuble · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 3:52WSHAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Brooks Laich, Shaone Morrisonn · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:00WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Matt Bradley · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
  6. P3 13:15ATLRich PeverleySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:33WSHMike GreenENAssists: Boyd Gordon · Backhand, 0.38 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 4:07ATLJim Slater: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 10:50ATLChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 12:14ATLPavel Kubina: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 18:28WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 18:28ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 18:28ATLChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 10:56WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
  8. P2 17:42WSHJeff Schultz: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 7:15WSHDavid Steckel: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 8:52WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 8:52ATLColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 12:32ATLNik Antropov: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Backstrom
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLWSH
45Shots on goal32
2.5Expected goals3.0
67Shot attempts73
39Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
17Penalty minutes13
19Hits15
20Blocked shots12
3Giveaways12
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.0 xGATL 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #576 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.06 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.

WSH winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).