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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 5, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Buffalo Sabres 3

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.

BUF winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR190939427
BUF1401829331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:07CARAaron WardAssists: Zach Boychuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:35BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Chris Butler, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P3 0:34CAREric StaalAssists: Ray Whitney, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P3 0:58BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Thomas Vanek, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P3 2:58BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Andrej Sekera, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:23CARTom KostopoulosAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
  7. P3 16:43CARJussi JokinenGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Tim Gleason · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:36BUFMike Grier: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 2:55CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 1:43CARSergei Samsonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 2:11BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 2:27BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 9:17CARAaron Ward: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 9:51BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
  8. P2 14:16CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
  9. P2 17:35CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
  10. P3 3:44BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 10:03BUFClarke MacArthur: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARBUF
27Shots on goal31
2.3Expected goals3.1
48Shot attempts53
26Faceoffs won31
6Power plays5
10Penalty minutes12
17Hits16
11Blocked shots10
11Giveaways15
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.1 xGCAR 2.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #121 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.35 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.

BUF winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).