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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 5, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Calgary Flames 2, Florida Panthers 1

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.

FLA winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY11511509239
FLA071402113

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:50CGYAles KotalikPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:20FLADennis SeidenbergPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, David Booth · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:18CGYMark GiordanoPPGWGAssists: Ian White, Daymond Langkow · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:02FLARostislav Olesz: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:02FLADominic Moore: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 1:08CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 2:19CGYCurtis Glencross: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 12:32FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min · PPG
  6. P2 12:32CGYJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 15:26FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 18:13CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
  9. P3 9:45CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYFLA
39Shots on goal13
1.8Expected goals1.0
59Shot attempts38
28Faceoffs won17
3Power plays4
13Penalty minutes11
31Hits28
18Blocked shots13
2Giveaways5
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 1.0 xGCGY 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLACGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #798 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.

FLA winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).