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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Vancouver Canucks 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
VAN0715118011331
BOS213012011070243

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:56BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Marc Savard, Marco Sturm · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:20BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Marc Savard, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:51VANMason RaymondAssists: Ryan Kesler · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P3 15:18VANPavol DemitraAssists: Sami Salo, Tanner Glass · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Blake Wheeler stopped
  2. 2. VAN Pavol Demitra scored
  3. 3. BOS David Krejci stopped
  4. 4. VAN Kyle Wellwood stopped
  5. 5. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 0:38VANTanner Glass: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:27BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:27VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 7:04BOSMatt Hunwick: Holding2 min
  5. P1 10:25BOSMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
  6. P1 12:34VANRick Rypien: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P1 19:13BOSMark Recchi: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 1:58VANMason Raymond: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P2 3:50VANHenrik Sedin: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 5:36BOSMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 10:12BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
  12. P2 13:24VANShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
  13. OT 4:57VANAlexander Edler: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Begin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANBOS
31Shots on goal43
3.2Expected goals3.5
48Shot attempts66
25Faceoffs won35
5Power plays6
17Penalty minutes15
25Hits20
11Blocked shots12
3Giveaways2
0Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.5 xGVAN 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #392 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.62 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).