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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Montréal Canadiens 5

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT171915321
MTL11121229532

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:29MTLTomas PlekanecUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 1:02PITPascal DupuisAssists: Jordan Staal, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.34 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:38MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Roman Hamrlik · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:21MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P2 13:57PITBill GuerinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
  6. P3 7:15MTLMathieu DarcheGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Jaroslav Spacek · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
  7. P3 10:47MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Travis Moen, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–5
  8. P3 16:44PITEvgeni MalkinSHAssists: Jay McKee, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:59MTLBen Maxwell: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 17:35PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 19:55MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 7:25MTLTravis Moen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 10:09PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P2 10:51PITSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
  7. P3 11:12PITCraig Adams: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 14:35PITBill Guerin: Instigator2 min
  9. P3 14:35PITBill Guerin: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 14:35PITBill Guerin: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 14:35MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 15:04PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 17:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITMTL
21Shots on goal32
2.5Expected goals3.1
52Shot attempts71
23Faceoffs won31
3Power plays7
29Penalty minutes11
19Hits13
25Blocked shots21
7Giveaways7
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.1 xGPIT 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #407 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.21 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).