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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Phoenix Coyotes 0, Dallas Stars 4

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

0

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX010013011034
DAL21121806435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:36DALJames NealGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:33DALLoui ErikssonSHAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:37DALJamie BennAssists: Brenden Morrow, Karlis Skrastins · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–3
  4. P2 6:27DALJamie BennPPAssists: Steve Ott, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 7:02DALWarren Peters: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:41PHXRobert Lang: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:10DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 5:06PHXSami Lepisto: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 10:09DALFabian Brunnstrom: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 12:14DALMarty Turco: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 16:24DALJamie Benn: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 5:27DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 5:27PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 7:21DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 12:26PHXJim Vandermeer: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Modano won the faceoff against Fiddler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXDAL
34Shots on goal35
2.8Expected goals2.8
68Shot attempts58
21Faceoffs won40
6Power plays3
11Penalty minutes17
19Hits42
9Blocked shots16
5Giveaways6
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.8 xGPHX 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1195 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.51 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).