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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Islanders 1

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Home

New York Islanders

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.

NYI winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR181918325
NYI011113011135

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:32CARJussi JokinenAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Ray Whitney · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:25NYIFrans NielsenSHAssists: Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:36CARPatrick DwyerGWGAssists: Brandon Sutter, Zach Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:00CARJoni PitkanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:37NYIRichard Park: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:23CARJoe Corvo: Holding2 min
  3. P1 18:15NYIFrans Nielsen: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 19:35CARSergei Samsonov: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 1:09CARTom Kostopoulos: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 6:58NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 9:12NYIMark Streit: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 6:45CARJoni Pitkanen: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 11:16CARAaron Ward: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARNYI
25Shots on goal35
2.1Expected goals4.3
49Shot attempts70
26Faceoffs won35
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
24Hits21
23Blocked shots14
8Giveaways19
13Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 4.3 xGCAR 2.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYICAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #783 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.26 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.

NYI winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).