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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

New Jersey Devils 1, New York Rangers 3

Away

New Jersey Devils

1

Final

Home

New York Rangers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.

NYR winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD010012120142
NYR0731008325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:20NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Michael Del Zotto · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:16NYRRyan CallahanGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:59NYRChris DruryAssists: Matt Gilroy, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
  4. P3 11:11NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 3:40NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 3:40NJDAndrew Peters: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:23NYRSean Avery: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 8:00NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 12:41NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 12:41NJDAndrew Peters: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 12:41NJDAndrew Peters: Misconduct10 min
  8. P1 16:15NYRChris Drury: Holding2 min
  9. P1 17:51NJDZach Parise: Interference2 min
  10. P2 1:41NYROlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 3:25NYRWade Redden: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  12. P2 6:17NJDRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 17:44NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 17:44NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 17:44NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 17:44NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 19:11NYRWade Redden: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Christensen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDNYR
42Shots on goal25
4.8Expected goals3.3
72Shot attempts39
29Faceoffs won29
5Power plays3
30Penalty minutes24
38Hits40
8Blocked shots18
6Giveaways8
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.3 xGNJD 4.8 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1031 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.74 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.

NYR winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).