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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Florida Panthers 2, Atlanta Thrashers 4

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA21205011228
ATL01221528435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:18FLARadek DvorakAssists: Jordan Leopold, Gregory Campbell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:45FLARadek DvorakAssists: Kamil Kreps · Backhand, 0.40 xG2–0
  3. P2 3:49ATLMaxim AfinogenovPPAssists: Pavel Kubina, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:39ATLBryan LittleAssists: Toby Enstrom, Nik Antropov · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:34ATLNiclas BergforsGWGAssists: Nik Antropov, Pavel Kubina · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:46ATLEvander KaneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 11:44FLANick Tarnasky: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 14:38ATLEvander Kane: Interference2 min
  3. P2 2:20ATLRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 2:46FLAJordan Leopold: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  5. P2 3:26FLABryan McCabe: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 4:42ATLRon Hainsey: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 4:42FLAKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 6:56FLANick Tarnasky: Misconduct10 min
  9. P2 11:02ATLEvander Kane: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  10. P2 13:39ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 17:18ATLZach Bogosian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P2 17:18FLADominic Moore: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P2 19:46FLADominic Moore: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 19:46ATLZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 19:46ATLColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 0:59FLASteve Reinprecht: Tripping2 min
  17. P3 6:51ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Hooking2 min
  18. P3 10:48ATLPavel Kubina: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Kreps
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAATL
28Shots on goal35
2.5Expected goals3.4
49Shot attempts64
22Faceoffs won28
7Power plays4
30Penalty minutes26
18Hits20
16Blocked shots10
6Giveaways9
7Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.4 xGFLA 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #305 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.75 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).