Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Calgary Flames 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Overtime

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.

TBL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CGY111090501126
TBL050511211223

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:44CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P3 1:00TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Smaby, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. OT 1:58TBLAndrej MeszarosGWGAssists: Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 0:33TBLKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 1:50CGYJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
  3. P1 5:20TBLZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 5:20CGYJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 7:58TBLTodd Fedoruk: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 7:58CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
  7. P1 7:58CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 10:18TBLMattias Ohlund: Slashing2 min
  9. P1 11:14CGYJarome Iginla: High sticking2 min
  10. P1 14:12TBLMatt Smaby: Interference2 min · PPG
  11. P1 16:45TBLStephane Veilleux: Fighting5 min
  12. P1 16:45CGYAles Kotalik: Fighting5 min
  13. P1 16:45CGYAles Kotalik: Game misconduct10 min
  14. P1 16:45TBLStephane Veilleux: Cross checking2 min
  15. P2 1:55CGYAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
  16. P2 16:04CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYTBL
26Shots on goal23
2.1Expected goals1.7
52Shot attempts46
22Faceoffs won26
4Power plays5
32Penalty minutes20
16Hits30
10Blocked shots16
5Giveaways10
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 1.7 xGCGY 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #770 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.

TBL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).