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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Buffalo Sabres 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 4

Away

Buffalo Sabres

0

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.

CBJ winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF01006012028
CBJ0721127425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:17CBJMilan JurcinaGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:32CBJRick NashPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P3 0:46CBJAnton StralmanAssists: Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
  4. P3 2:09CBJRaffi TorresPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 8:22CBJAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:17CBJKristian Huselius: Holding2 min
  3. P2 0:15BUFPaul Gaustad: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 2:49BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 2:49CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 11:16BUFCraig Rivet: High sticking double minor4 min
  7. P2 14:55BUFToni Lydman: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 0:00CBJJan Hejda: Interference2 min
  9. P3 0:36BUFJason Pominville: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 2:52BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 2:52CBJR.J. Umberger: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 2:52BUFDrew Stafford: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 9:08CBJRaffi Torres: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 13:01CBJMathieu Roy: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Brassard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFCBJ
28Shots on goal25
1.7Expected goals2.3
48Shot attempts45
35Faceoffs won33
5Power plays6
22Penalty minutes20
20Hits32
12Blocked shots10
2Giveaways2
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.3 xGBUF 1.7 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1154 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 63% of the time.

CBJ winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).