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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

San Jose Sharks 4, Nashville Predators 3

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.

NSH winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS11121117429
NSH112210016338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:39NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Martin Erat, Cal O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:12SJSBrad StaubitzAssists: Kent Huskins, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. P2 8:47NSHJ-P DumontPPAssists: Cal O'Reilly, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:57SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P2 17:35NSHJoel WardAssists: Cal O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:36SJSRob BlakeAssists: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–3
  7. P3 11:57SJSDany HeatleyPPGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:04NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:04SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:32NSHAlexander Sulzer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P1 6:52NSHJason Arnott: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 12:08SJSDany Heatley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 6:48SJSBrad Staubitz: Boarding2 min · PPG
  7. P2 9:25SJSJay Leach: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 9:25NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 9:25SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 12:34NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
  11. P2 12:34SJSScott Nichol: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P2 13:49NSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 11:32NSHDan Hamhuis: Boarding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSNSH
29Shots on goal38
2.6Expected goals4.1
50Shot attempts65
43Faceoffs won25
4Power plays3
18Penalty minutes20
17Hits20
13Blocked shots12
10Giveaways7
2Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 4.1 xGSJS 2.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #294 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.

NSH winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).