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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Minnesota Wild 2

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.

MIN winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI117010012139
MIN1711607230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:37MINCal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:53PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Braydon Coburn, Simon Gagne · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:48MINOwen NolanGWGAssists: Eric Belanger, Kim Johnsson · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:29MINRobbie Earl: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 1:46PHIChris Pronger: Holding2 min
  3. P2 5:45MINGreg Zanon: Interference2 min
  4. P2 9:35PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 13:36PHIMike Richards: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 18:54MINOwen Nolan: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 18:54PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 3:09MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 7:07PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 9:59MINEric Belanger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Brodziak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIMIN
39Shots on goal30
2.7Expected goals3.0
64Shot attempts53
36Faceoffs won28
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
23Hits19
8Blocked shots15
9Giveaways6
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 3.0 xGPHI 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #844 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.16 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.

MIN winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).