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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 6, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Edmonton Oilers 0, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

0

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 96% of the time.

COL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM040808020
COL014115213342

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 9:33COLWojtek WolskiGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P3 17:06COLRyan WilsonAssists: Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P3 19:30COLBrandon YipENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 12:21COLKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 16:53EDMLubomir Visnovsky: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 18:52EDMShawn Horcoff: Holding2 min
  4. P3 10:47COLAdam Foote: Holding2 min
  5. P3 12:35COLScott Hannan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCOL
20Shots on goal42
1.4Expected goals5.5
44Shot attempts86
26Faceoffs won26
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
18Hits24
26Blocked shots12
7Giveaways14
10Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 5.5 xGEDM 1.4 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1160 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.61 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 96% of the time.

COL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).