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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 7, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Boston Bruins 3, Montréal Canadiens 0

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS21303111327
MTL010015011036

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:32BOSAdam McQuaidGWGAssists: Marc Savard · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:56BOSMarco SturmAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
  3. P3 9:49BOSMarco SturmAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 0:39MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 0:39BOSMarco Sturm: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 12:17BOSBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 12:17MTLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 12:39BOSDerek Morris: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSMTL
27Shots on goal36
2.2Expected goals2.6
63Shot attempts58
26Faceoffs won26
0Power plays1
9Penalty minutes7
17Hits17
15Blocked shots18
6Giveaways14
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.6 xGBOS 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1170 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.58 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).