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Ice Lab

Sun, Feb 7, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 5 (OT)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

WSH winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PIT2921501100435
WSH0152421114534

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:59PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:59PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
  3. P2 9:01WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:43PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Matt Cooke · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
  5. P2 13:07PITJordan StaalAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
  6. P2 17:12WSHEric FehrAssists: Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–2
  7. P3 6:51WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Poti, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
  8. P3 11:06WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Knuble, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
  9. OT 2:49WSHMike KnublePPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 9:05WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:55PITChris Kunitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P1 13:59PITMark Eaton: Holding2 min
  4. P1 15:51PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 15:51WSHMike Knuble: Instigator2 min
  6. P1 15:51WSHMike Knuble: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 15:51WSHMike Knuble: Instigator misconduct10 min
  8. P2 0:57PITSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
  9. P2 6:02WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 11:43PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 11:43WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 11:43PITTyler Kennedy: Misconduct10 min
  13. P2 11:43WSHNicklas Backstrom: Misconduct10 min
  14. P2 18:37WSHAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
  15. P2 19:37WSHTom Poti: Interference2 min
  16. P3 15:52WSHJeff Schultz: Slashing2 min
  17. OT 2:26PITBrooks Orpik: High sticking2 min · PPG
  18. OT 2:49PITBrooks Orpik: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITWSH
35Shots on goal34
4.8Expected goals4.8
77Shot attempts75
39Faceoffs won34
6Power plays4
35Penalty minutes39
17Hits32
22Blocked shots22
5Giveaways7
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 4.8 xGPIT 4.8 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #19 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.25 · 9 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

WSH winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).