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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 8, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

San Jose Sharks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.

TOR winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS0729110326
TOR11311308234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:36TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:17SJSDan BoyleAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:41SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:09TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Tomas Kaberle · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:21SJSRyane CloweGWGAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Rob Blake · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 6:08SJSScott Nichol: Holding2 min
  2. P1 9:55SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:55TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:40TORFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 5:43TORGarnet Exelby: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 5:43SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 16:32TORFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
  8. P2 19:00SJSJody Shelley: Roughing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 7:39SJSRyane Clowe: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kadri
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSTOR
26Shots on goal34
1.9Expected goals2.8
50Shot attempts67
30Faceoffs won28
2Power plays3
16Penalty minutes14
26Hits34
19Blocked shots14
8Giveaways11
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.8 xGSJS 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #610 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.62 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.

TOR winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).