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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 8, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New Jersey Devils 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Away

New Jersey Devils

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.

PHI winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD17113010230
PHI012215110337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:00NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Patrik Elias, Andy Greene · Deflected, 0.22 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:01NJDAnssi SalmelaSHAssists: Travis Zajac, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P2 18:24PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:36PHIJeff CarterAssists: Scott Hartnell, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 12:02PHIMike RichardsPPGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 6:43PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:45NJDBryce Salvador: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:45PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 8:47PHIBlair Betts: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 11:25PHIArron Asham: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P1 13:32NJDDean McAmmond: Hooking2 min
  7. P1 19:20NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 6:04PHIOskars Bartulis: Holding the stick2 min
  9. P2 13:27NJDPatrik Elias: Interference2 min
  10. P2 19:36PHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 3:48PHIChris Pronger: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 6:50PHILukas Krajicek: Holding2 min
  13. P3 10:24NJDZach Parise: High sticking2 min · PPG
  14. P3 18:08PHIKimmo Timonen: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Niedermayer
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDPHI
30Shots on goal37
2.4Expected goals5.4
52Shot attempts57
30Faceoffs won20
7Power plays4
13Penalty minutes29
20Hits28
11Blocked shots14
10Giveaways9
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 5.4 xGNJD 2.4 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #307 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.77 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.

PHI winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).