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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 8, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 5

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.

COL winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL211012011234
COL29314010533

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:34STLEric BrewerAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:02COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Chris Stewart, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:59STLErik JohnsonAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P1 16:42COLBrandon YipPPAssists: Kyle Cumiskey, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
  5. P2 2:25COLChris StewartGWGAssists: Ryan Wilson, Darcy Tucker · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P2 3:57COLPaul StastnyAssists: Marek Svatos, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
  7. P2 6:34COLBrandon YipAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 2:21STLDJ King: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:21COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:49STLB.J. Crombeen: Interference2 min
  4. P1 15:56STLT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 6:36COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 6:36STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 11:42STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 13:51COLChris Durno: High sticking double minor4 min
  9. P2 19:36STLKeith Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P3 3:07STLKeith Tkachuk: Holding2 min
  11. P3 9:33COLKyle Quincey: Delaying game2 min
  12. P3 13:48STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Oshie won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCOL
34Shots on goal33
2.3Expected goals3.8
56Shot attempts55
32Faceoffs won32
3Power plays6
22Penalty minutes16
25Hits13
13Blocked shots12
5Giveaways10
10Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.8 xGSTL 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #564 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.19 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.

COL winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).