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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 9, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Nashville Predators 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Islanders

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.

NYI winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NSH0921215011327
NYI0321719032432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:10NYIFreddy MeyerAssists: Rob Schremp, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:35NSHCal O'ReillyUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:51NSHJoel WardAssists: Jerred Smithson, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:03NYIBruno GervaisPPAssists: Matt Martin, Rob Schremp · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:12NSHSteve SullivanPPAssists: Martin Erat, Jason Arnott · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:48NYIMark StreitPPAssists: Matt Martin, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
  2. 2. NSH Steve Sullivan stopped
  3. 3. NYI Rob Schremp stopped
  4. 4. NSH David Legwand stopped
  5. 5. NYI Matt Moulson stopped
  6. 6. NSH Martin Erat scored
  7. 7. NYI John Tavares scored
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 10:03NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
  2. P1 16:02NSHDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min
  3. P1 19:47NYISean Bergenheim: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 19:47NSHJordin Tootoo: Diving2 min
  5. P2 8:10NYIFrans Nielsen: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 17:21NSHJerred Smithson: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 17:41NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 1:51NYIBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
  9. P3 3:34NYISean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 5:22NSHRyan Suter: Interference2 min
  11. P3 8:31NYIJesse Joensuu: Too many men on the ice2 min
  12. P3 15:44NSHJ-P Dumont: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 19:14NSHMartin Erat: Boarding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHNYI
27Shots on goal32
2.6Expected goals4.2
53Shot attempts73
32Faceoffs won34
5Power plays6
14Penalty minutes12
12Hits17
20Blocked shots17
8Giveaways18
19Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 4.2 xGNSH 2.6 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYINSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 93/100 · #68 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.72 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.

NYI winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).