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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 9, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Florida Panthers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4

Away

Florida Panthers

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA081705120
CAR0921328430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:28CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Eric Staal, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 9:36FLACory StillmanAssists: Stephen Weiss, Bryan McCabe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:00CARJoni PitkanenGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Aaron Ward · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P3 3:11CARMatt CullenAssists: Tim Gleason, Tom Kostopoulos · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:46CARTuomo RuutuENAssists: Matt Cullen, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 6:16CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:16FLAGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:27FLAKeith Ballard: Interference2 min
  4. P1 17:01CARSteven Goertzen: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 17:01FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 18:37FLAVictor Oreskovich: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 3:56FLAKeith Ballard: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 10:28CARJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 0:46CARTom Kostopoulos: Interference2 min
  10. P3 5:29CARAaron Ward: Interference2 min
  11. P3 6:29FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 0:00CARStephane Yelle: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACAR
20Shots on goal30
1.5Expected goals4.3
44Shot attempts62
32Faceoffs won25
3Power plays4
18Penalty minutes18
29Hits22
18Blocked shots11
4Giveaways5
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 4.3 xGFLA 1.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #819 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.13 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.

CAR winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).