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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 9, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Calgary Flames 2, Ottawa Senators 3

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.

OTT winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY11211106229
OTT111210010331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:51CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:10OTTAlex KovalevPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.26 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:18CGYMatt StajanAssists: Jarome Iginla, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:36OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:37OTTJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Jonathan Cheechoo · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 1:19OTTFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 17:01CGYIan White: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 10:15CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 16:55OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 16:55CGYJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 16:55OTTJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 16:55CGYRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 17:03CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 17:03OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 18:43CGYJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYOTT
29Shots on goal31
1.4Expected goals3.5
58Shot attempts66
32Faceoffs won29
1Power plays3
15Penalty minutes11
31Hits34
15Blocked shots20
15Giveaways15
12Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.5 xGCGY 1.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #734 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.37 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.

OTT winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).