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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 9, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Detroit Red Wings 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

3

Final

Shootout

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.

STL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET112014213031342
STL02028111062445

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:19DETKris DraperAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Darren Helm · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 12:20STLDavid PerronAssists: Paul Kariya, David Backes · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:10STLPaul KariyaAssists: David Backes, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:57STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Carlo Colaiacovo · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–3
  5. P3 14:26DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:40DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. STL Andy McDonald stopped
  2. 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
  3. 3. STL T.J. Oshie scored
  4. 4. DET Jason Williams scored
  5. 5. STL Brad Boyes scored
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:28DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
  2. P1 4:20STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:20DETBrad May: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 10:06STLDavid Perron: Boarding2 min
  5. P1 16:07DETDerek Meech: Holding2 min
  6. P2 10:06STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
  7. P2 13:03STLKeith Tkachuk: Holding2 min
  8. P3 1:28DETBrett Lebda: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 3:43STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 5:17DETDaniel Cleary: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 10:47DETBrad Stuart: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Zetterberg
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETSTL
42Shots on goal45
3.4Expected goals3.1
68Shot attempts73
33Faceoffs won37
4Power plays5
15Penalty minutes13
17Hits25
17Blocked shots19
6Giveaways8
6Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 3.1 xGDET 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #124 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.22 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.

STL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).