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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 9, 2010·United Center, Chicago

Dallas Stars 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (SO)

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.

CHI winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL2507110050327
CHI28016114020440

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:27DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: James Neal, Fabian Brunnstrom · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:54CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:03DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–1
  4. P1 19:31CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:13CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Marian Hossa, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
  6. P3 16:10DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  2. 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
  3. 3. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
  4. 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
  5. 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
  6. 6. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
  7. 7. DAL Matt Niskanen stopped
  8. 8. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
  9. 9. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 4:09CHIAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 7:26CHIDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P1 8:57DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 10:05DALNicklas Grossmann: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 10:20CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 5:57DALMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
  7. P2 8:46CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
  8. OT 2:29CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCHI
27Shots on goal40
2.8Expected goals2.8
51Shot attempts63
22Faceoffs won34
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
27Hits23
14Blocked shots14
2Giveaways7
9Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.8 xGDAL 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #196 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.19 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 50% of the time.

CHI winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).