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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 10, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Philadelphia Flyers 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (OT)

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Overtime

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.

NJD winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHI16160112315
NJD27080701223

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:45NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Brian Rolston, Mark Fraser · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:01NJDRob NiedermayerAssists: Rod Pelley · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
  3. P1 8:33PHIArron AshamAssists: Claude Giroux, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:47PHIJeff CarterAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. OT 3:27PHISimon GagneGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 10:23PHIDaniel Brière: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 13:17NJDColin White: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 3:00NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Interference2 min
  4. P2 8:27NJDMartin Brodeur: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
  5. P3 7:44PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
  6. P3 9:19PHIMatt Carle: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P3 10:48NJDPatrik Elias: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Betts won the faceoff against McAmmond
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINJD
15Shots on goal23
1.4Expected goals2.2
40Shot attempts50
26Faceoffs won26
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
11Hits8
13Blocked shots16
1Giveaways2
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.2 xGPHI 1.4 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #429 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.48 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.

NJD winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).