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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 10, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Nashville Predators 2, New York Rangers 1

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

New York Rangers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.

NYR winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH111113012236
NYR09111018138

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:45NSHJordin TootooAssists: Kevin Klein, David Legwand · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:48NYRVinny ProspalPPAssists: Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.57 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:10NSHColin WilsonPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 7:32NSHJoel Ward: Holding2 min
  2. P1 11:08NYRErik Christensen: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 15:11NYREnver Lisin: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 19:31NYRCorey Potter: Interference2 min
  5. P1 19:49NSHSteve Sullivan: Holding2 min
  6. P2 7:50NSHMartin Erat: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:51NSHSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 12:34NYRMichael Del Zotto: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 12:34NYRMichael Del Zotto: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 2:45NSHAlexander Sulzer: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 19:56NSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHNYR
36Shots on goal38
3.8Expected goals3.2
59Shot attempts61
28Faceoffs won26
5Power plays6
12Penalty minutes10
25Hits31
15Blocked shots13
8Giveaways8
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.2 xGNSH 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #802 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.

NYR winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).