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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 10, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Washington Capitals 5, Montréal Canadiens 6 (OT)

Away

Washington Capitals

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Montréal Canadiens

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.

MTL winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
WSH11411031202538
MTL194170914639

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:36MTLScott GomezAssists: Brian Gionta, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:23WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Alexander Semin · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:41MTLTom PyattAssists: Ryan O'Byrne, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:11WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 12:45MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: David Desharnais, Roman Hamrlik · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–3
  6. P2 12:57MTLMaxim LapierreAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P2 18:56MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
  8. P3 0:16WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
  9. P3 9:02WSHBrooks LaichUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:41WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Mike Knuble, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–5
  11. OT 4:52MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–6
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 1:39MTLSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 12:05MTLBen Maxwell: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:32WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 17:50MTLBrian Gionta: Interference2 min
  5. P2 7:15WSHMike Knuble: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 11:28WSHBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 14:26MTLRyan O'Byrne: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 0:13MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 7:02WSHJeff Schultz: Holding2 min
  10. P3 11:06WSHBrendan Morrison: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 12:31MTLHal Gill: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 17:28MTLGlen Metropolit: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHMTL
38Shots on goal39
3.1Expected goals4.6
80Shot attempts68
35Faceoffs won39
7Power plays5
10Penalty minutes14
17Hits15
15Blocked shots26
8Giveaways5
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 4.6 xGWSH 3.1 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #3 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.80 · 11 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.

MTL winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).