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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 10, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

New York Islanders 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3

Away

New York Islanders

1

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 50% of the time.

PIT winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI012012114138
PIT0921217328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:33PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 17:00PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Mark Eaton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P3 9:38NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Bruno Gervais · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:48PITChris KunitzAssists: Bill Guerin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 9:37NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 9:37PITTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:34PITKris Letang: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
  4. P1 10:34NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 16:00PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
  6. P2 7:11PITBrooks Orpik: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 8:23PITJordan Staal: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 13:51NYIFreddy Meyer: Elbowing2 min
  9. P2 13:51NYIFreddy Meyer: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 13:51PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 16:56PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 16:56NYIDwayne Roloson: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nielsen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIPIT
38Shots on goal28
2.7Expected goals2.7
64Shot attempts50
27Faceoffs won34
3Power plays1
13Penalty minutes17
13Hits26
8Blocked shots11
3Giveaways3
2Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.7 xGNYI 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1016 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 50% of the time.

PIT winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).