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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 10, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Phoenix Coyotes 3, Minnesota Wild 2

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.

MIN winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX1911418331
MIN18010112230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:46MINGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Martin Havlat, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:02PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Petr Prucha, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:08PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Shane Doan, Ed Jovanovski · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:41PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Jim Vandermeer, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P3 17:32MINMartin HavlatAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 3:34PHXVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:01MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:28PHXRobert Lang: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 13:03MINNick Schultz: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Belanger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXMIN
31Shots on goal30
1.8Expected goals1.9
50Shot attempts55
31Faceoffs won22
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
29Hits24
13Blocked shots9
6Giveaways12
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 1.9 xGPHX 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #817 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.

MIN winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).