Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 10, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Edmonton Oilers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.

ANA winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM01721408239
ANA11011515330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:58ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:22EDMRyan PotulnySHAssists: Ethan Moreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:13EDMEthan MoreauSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P2 15:22ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Petteri Nokelainen, Scott Niedermayer · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:21ANATodd MarchantGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Scott Niedermayer · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 7:45EDMRyan Potulny: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 12:42EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:42ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 0:38ANAScott Niedermayer: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 1:07ANATodd Marchant: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 4:55EDMSteve Staios: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 7:45EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
  8. P2 10:51ANATroy Bodie: Kneeing2 min
  9. P2 14:04EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P2 19:23EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Interference2 min
  11. P3 5:34EDMSteve Staios: Interference2 min
  12. P3 8:21EDMRobert Nilsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 17:10ANAPetteri Nokelainen: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 0:00EDMRobert Nilsson: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Potulny won the faceoff against Chipchura
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMANA
39Shots on goal30
4.4Expected goals3.8
63Shot attempts66
25Faceoffs won28
4Power plays7
21Penalty minutes13
17Hits25
22Blocked shots10
12Giveaways12
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.8 xGEDM 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANAEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #530 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.73 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.

ANA winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).