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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 11, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Washington Capitals 5, Ottawa Senators 6

Away

Washington Capitals

5

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.

OTT winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH1631117524
OTT3121927628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:03OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Filip Kuba, Alexandre Picard · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:09OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:00WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Alexander Semin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P1 19:53OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 6:39WSHJeff SchultzAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P2 15:17WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
  7. P2 15:59WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brendan Morrison, Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
  8. P2 18:04OTTChris NeilAssists: Jesse Winchester, Filip Kuba · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–4
  9. P3 2:23OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Alex Kovalev · Slap, 0.07 xG4–5
  10. P3 7:36OTTAlex KovalevPPGWGAssists: Filip Kuba, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.02 xG4–6
  11. P3 13:37WSHAlexander SeminUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–6
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 19:32WSHBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 1:22OTTPeter Regin: High sticking2 min
  3. P3 2:54OTTMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 7:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Winchester
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHOTT
24Shots on goal28
1.4Expected goals1.9
64Shot attempts40
35Faceoffs won34
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
22Hits24
5Blocked shots29
10Giveaways12
9Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 1.9 xGWSH 1.4 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #39 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.20 · 11 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.

OTT winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).