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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 11, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.

CAR winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BUF21201011000332
CAR2131130712435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:13BUFDerek RoyAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:01BUFJochen HechtAssists: Tim Connolly, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P1 16:29CARBrandon SutterPPAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P1 19:58CARRay WhitneyPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Joni Pitkanen · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
  5. P2 9:55CARStephane YelleAssists: Brandon Sutter · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 12:53BUFDerek RoyAssists: Thomas Vanek, Chris Butler · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–3
  7. OT 1:47CARSergei SamsonovGWGAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 6:49CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:22BUFCraig Rivet: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 17:37BUFTim Connolly: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 19:47BUFToni Lydman: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 13:12BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 18:28BUFDerek Roy: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 18:28CARJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 4:21CARAndrew Alberts: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFCAR
32Shots on goal35
3.0Expected goals3.1
66Shot attempts64
21Faceoffs won39
2Power plays4
10Penalty minutes6
26Hits30
16Blocked shots15
7Giveaways7
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.1 xGBUF 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #180 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.02 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.

CAR winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).