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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 11, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Boston Bruins 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Away

Boston Bruins

5

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.

TBL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS42115010536
TBL01329213435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:24BOSMiroslav SatanAssists: Marc Savard, Derek Morris · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:21BOSMilan LucicAssists: Michael Ryder, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P1 15:44BOSMichael RyderAssists: Blake Wheeler, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
  4. P1 17:19BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Marc Savard, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–0
  5. P2 4:53BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Daniel Paille · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–0
  6. P2 16:10TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.01 xG5–1
  7. P2 19:02TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–2
  8. P3 11:09TBLSteve DownieAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–3
  9. P3 16:47TBLSteve DownieAssists: Victor Hedman, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–4
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 3:16TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 3:16BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:55BOSMiroslav Satan: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 7:55TBLMattias Ohlund: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 16:41BOSMiroslav Satan: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 16:41TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P1 16:41TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 7:47TBLMattias Ohlund: Holding2 min
  9. P2 13:35TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 13:35BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 13:35BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
  12. P2 17:04TBLTodd Fedoruk: Interference2 min
  13. P2 17:15BOSMichael Ryder: Holding2 min · PPG
  14. P2 18:40BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
  15. P3 2:47BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  16. P3 11:51BOSDennis Wideman: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Thompson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSTBL
36Shots on goal35
2.8Expected goals2.0
65Shot attempts54
40Faceoffs won28
3Power plays5
21Penalty minutes17
17Hits20
11Blocked shots17
8Giveaways10
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.0 xGBOS 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #142 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.93 · 7 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.

TBL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).