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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 11, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

San Jose Sharks 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Detroit Red Wings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.

DET winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
SJS290807020326
DET119014117020252

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:13DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:38SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Niclas Wallin, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:50SJSDwight HelminenAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Scott Nichol · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P3 12:55DETJason WilliamsAssists: Brett Lebda, Tomas Holmstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
  2. 2. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
  3. 3. DET Jason Williams stopped
  4. 4. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
  5. 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 3:41SJSRyane Clowe: Elbowing2 min
  2. P1 6:42DETKris Draper: Holding2 min
  3. P1 11:55SJSJed Ortmeyer: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P1 14:05SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 14:58DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 5:46SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 19:39SJSScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 19:39DETDrew Miller: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 13:43SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 13:43DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 14:11SJSRob Blake: Tripping2 min
  12. OT 2:39SJSRob Blake: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Helm
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSDET
26Shots on goal52
1.9Expected goals3.7
45Shot attempts80
39Faceoffs won40
2Power plays6
19Penalty minutes11
26Hits34
14Blocked shots9
9Giveaways20
10Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.7 xGSJS 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 71/100 · #328 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.94 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.

DET winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).