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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 11, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Dallas Stars 3, Calgary Flames 1

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.

CGY winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0411128323
CGY111011012134

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:34CGYJarome IginlaPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:00DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:01DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:50DALMike RibeiroSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 8:54DALLoui Eriksson: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 14:56DALJames Neal: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 18:00CGYDaymond Langkow: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 2:35CGYAles Kotalik: Interference2 min
  5. P2 7:04DALKrys Barch: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 9:22DALFabian Brunnstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 13:36CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P2 16:18CGYMikael Backlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P3 12:22CGYMikael Backlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P3 18:02DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCGY
23Shots on goal34
2.1Expected goals2.9
40Shot attempts66
22Faceoffs won30
5Power plays6
12Penalty minutes10
10Hits12
20Blocked shots7
5Giveaways9
10Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.9 xGDAL 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #786 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.25 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.

CGY winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).