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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 12, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Nashville Predators 2, New Jersey Devils 5

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 84% of the time.

NJD winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH171905221
NJD1141638528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:49NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:30NSHCal O'ReillyPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:46NSHJordin TootooAssists: David Legwand, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 2:30NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Mike Mottau · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:24NJDIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:08NJDZach ParisePPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:18NJDJamie LangenbrunnerENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 10:23NSHFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 10:57NSHDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:35NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 3:53NSHDavid Legwand: Interference2 min
  5. P2 5:31NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 12:52NJDColin White: Holding2 min
  7. P3 3:50NSHDavid Legwand: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 11:53NSHDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 15:27NJDMike Mottau: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHNJD
21Shots on goal28
1.3Expected goals3.1
36Shot attempts40
25Faceoffs won32
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
9Hits7
3Blocked shots5
0Giveaways11
1Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.1 xGNSH 1.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #532 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.53 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 84% of the time.

NJD winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).