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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 12, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Montréal Canadiens 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.

PHI winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL0607212225
PHI111212010333

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:14PHIJeff CarterAssists: Scott Hartnell, Daniel Brière · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:17PHIJeff CarterAssists: Scott Hartnell, Braydon Coburn · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 3:17PHIMatt CarleGWGAssists: Darroll Powe, Blair Betts · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–3
  4. P3 2:05MTLGlen MetropolitAssists: Travis Moen, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:01MTLDominic MooreAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 16:08MTLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
  2. P1 19:07MTLScott Gomez: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:10PHIChris Pronger: Holding2 min
  4. P2 8:11MTLJosh Gorges: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 18:21PHIBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P3 4:13MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 5:44MTLDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 7:39MTLSergei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 19:01PHIDarroll Powe: Boarding5 min
  10. P3 19:01PHIDarroll Powe: Game misconduct10 min
  11. P3 19:01MTLRoman Hamrlik: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 0:00PHIKimmo Timonen: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 0:00PHIKimmo Timonen: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 0:00MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLPHI
25Shots on goal33
2.3Expected goals4.1
67Shot attempts63
27Faceoffs won28
3Power plays6
16Penalty minutes31
17Hits27
18Blocked shots29
7Giveaways11
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.1 xGMTL 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #480 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.98 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.

PHI winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).