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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 12, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Vancouver Canucks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3

Away

Vancouver Canucks

4

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.

CBJ winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN11311329435
CBJ21115019335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:22CBJRick NashAssists: Antoine Vermette, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:08VANNolan BaumgartnerAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P1 2:38CBJJared BollAssists: Andrew Murray, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:28CBJRaffi TorresAssists: Jakub Voracek, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P2 10:37VANKyle WellwoodAssists: Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:31VANSami SaloPPAssists: Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P3 7:56VANMikael SamuelssonGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 5:39CBJMilan Jurcina: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 10:24VANRick Rypien: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 8:18CBJRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 14:26CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P3 4:01CBJAntoine Vermette: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 13:36VANMason Raymond: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCBJ
35Shots on goal35
2.0Expected goals2.7
50Shot attempts52
30Faceoffs won27
5Power plays2
4Penalty minutes10
27Hits34
6Blocked shots9
1Giveaways2
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.7 xGVAN 2.0 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #280 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.73 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.

CBJ winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).