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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 12, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

New York Rangers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)

Away

New York Rangers

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.

PIT winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NYR01121301301338
PIT112061900227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:42PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bill Guerin, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:28NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Chris Drury, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:44NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Artem Anisimov, Wade Redden · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 3:53PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 13:44NYRMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min
  2. P2 10:35NYRChris Drury: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 10:35PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 10:35PITMatt Cooke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P2 10:35NYRMichal Rozsival: Misconduct10 min
  6. P2 13:20PITBill Guerin: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 3:17NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 10:08PITMark Letestu: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Christensen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRPIT
38Shots on goal27
2.5Expected goals2.0
56Shot attempts56
31Faceoffs won23
3Power plays2
19Penalty minutes11
32Hits22
14Blocked shots11
6Giveaways13
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.0 xGNYR 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #613 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.61 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.

PIT winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).