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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 12, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Toronto Maple Leafs 0, St. Louis Blues 4

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

0

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR01104015030
STL11321317433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:22STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
  2. P2 9:07STLT.J. OshieSHAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
  3. P2 13:47STLAlexander SteenSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P3 13:35STLB.J. CrombeenAssists: Jay McClement, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 5:01TORColton Orr: Instigator2 min
  2. P1 5:01TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:01TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
  4. P1 5:01STLCam Janssen: Charging2 min
  5. P1 5:01STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 8:27STLPaul Kariya: Interference2 min
  7. P1 14:36TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
  8. P1 14:41STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
  9. P1 16:32STLPaul Kariya: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 3:35TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 3:35STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 4:25TORPhil Kessel: Interference2 min
  13. P2 7:56STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
  14. P2 9:50TORGarnet Exelby: Interference2 min
  15. P2 12:06STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Holding2 min
  16. P2 19:20STLRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
  17. P3 16:17STLBarret Jackman: Interference2 min
  18. P3 19:27STLBrad Winchester: Slashing2 min
  19. P3 19:27STLCam Janssen: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 19:27TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Hanson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORSTL
30Shots on goal33
2.3Expected goals2.5
54Shot attempts53
27Faceoffs won33
8Power plays3
38Penalty minutes38
20Hits19
13Blocked shots10
2Giveaways3
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.5 xGTOR 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1162 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.60 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).